How Does the Future of Buy-To-Let Market Look in 2024?

Nikka Sulton

How Does the Future of Buy-To-Let Market Look in 2024?

Buy-to-let investors are grappling with challenges as rising interest rates, unfavorable tax changes, and uncertainties in the housing market impact their returns. The once-popular investment avenue is losing its appeal due to a bleak economic outlook and recent tax alterations that have diminished buy-to-let’s attractiveness as a lucrative investment proposition. In this current challenging landscape, the future of buy-to-let, which has been a preferred choice for many seeking regular income and growth potential, is now under scrutiny.

Despite the challenges, the enduring sentiment of “an Englishman’s home is his castle” persists, reflecting the nation’s deep-rooted affinity for homeownership. Multiple property ownership remains a common financial strategy, leveraging real estate as both a pension plan and investment asset. Buy-to-let mortgages, introduced 26 years ago, played a significant role in enabling millions to build property portfolios, enjoying substantial returns. However, the fragility of the market in the face of economic and regulatory shifts raises questions about the continued viability of buy-to-let as a resilient investment avenue.

As the economic landscape evolves and tax policies undergo changes, investors are reevaluating the buy-to-let model. The combination of unfavorable tax adjustments and an uncertain economic climate is reshaping the perception of property as an investment. With the once-robust buy-to-let market facing headwinds, investors must navigate the shifting landscape, considering the implications of rising interest rates and regulatory changes on the future prospects of this traditionally popular investment avenue.

What does the current market look like?

The buy-to-let market has seen significant growth, boasting 2.65 million landlords with a collective property asset value exceeding £1 trillion. If you were among those fortunate enough to invest in properties during the 90s, you’re likely reaping substantial returns, given the robust long-term performance of real estate. Over the past 25 years, the average home value has doubled, showcasing a lucrative trend even when accounting for inflation.

Buy-to-let investors, particularly in the last two years, have enjoyed double-digit house price growth, escalating rental incomes, and the added advantage of a stamp duty holiday. This temporary relief exempted buyers from tax on property purchases below £500,000 between July 2020 and June 2021, contributing to the favorable conditions in the buy-to-let landscape.

What does the future hold?

The buy-to-let market’s stability is under scrutiny, echoing past uncertainties during the 2008 financial crisis. Although a market crash hasn’t occurred yet, the Bank of England’s recent decision to raise interest rates to 2.25%, the highest since 2008, suggests potential challenges ahead amid 40-year high inflation. This escalation in borrowing costs, coupled with anticipated further rate increases, is expected to elevate mortgage repayments, particularly affecting variable mortgage rate holders, including those with substantial buy-to-let portfolios.

The repercussions may extend to the property market, displaying signs of a slowdown and predictions of potential valuation plunges up to 20%. This poses a dilemma for buy-to-let landlords, as falling prices diminish loan security, raising the risk of defaulting on mortgage repayments and potential property repossessions. Landlords may find themselves facing tough decisions, contemplating whether to sell their properties or opt for rent increases to navigate the evolving challenges in the buy-to-let landscape.

How have tax changes affected buy to let?

Investors eyeing buy-to-let properties must navigate recent tax changes affecting potential growth and income. The altered landscape includes:

Capital Gains Tax (CGT): While CGT rates decreased for most investments in 2016, property sales maintained higher rates, imposing an 8% surcharge on non-main residence property sales.

Wear and Tear Allowance Replacement: The former 10% allowance for ‘wear and tear’ expenses without receipts was replaced in 2016 with Replacement Relief, requiring itemized receipts for cost offsetting against the tax bill.

Mortgage Interest Tax Relief Shift: Previously, landlords could offset mortgage costs at their marginal tax rate, but the shift to a 20% tax credit, regardless of the tax rate, affects those with total income surpassing the higher rate threshold. Exploring alternatives, like setting up buy-to-let dealings through a limited company, is advised.

Stamp Duty Surcharge: Despite the recent stamp duty cut benefiting homebuyers, buy-to-let investors face a 3% surcharge on property purchases. For an average-priced home around £300,000, this adds £9k to the overall cost. Navigating these changes requires careful consideration and expert advice to optimize financial outcomes.

Concerned about how you might be affected?

Buy-to-let landlords face crucial decisions ahead. Whether to opt for a fixed rate or allocate capital to reduce outstanding loans is a key consideration. Understanding the implications of each choice is essential in navigating the current landscape.